Frontrunner Twist: Dual Veeps Dominate

Street signpost with opposing directions — Photo: Rudy Umans / Shutterstock

A new national poll shows the 2028 race could come down to two people who already know each other well: the current vice president and the one he replaced.

Story Snapshot

A Focaldata/Financial Times poll of 2,553 U.S. adults, taken October 2-5, 2026, shows Kamala Harris leading Democrats and JD Vance leading Republicans.
Harris polls at 30% among Democrats, well ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 15% and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%.
Vance polls at 38% among Republicans, more than doubling Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 24%.
Experts and pollsters warn these early numbers are a snapshot, not a prediction, since name recognition can fade fast once real campaigns start.

Two Vice Presidents Top Their Parties’ Fields

Harris and Vance both lead their party’s hypothetical 2028 primary, according to the Focaldata survey released October 11 and reported by Reuters. The poll puts Harris at 30% support among Democrats and Vance at 38% among Republicans. It’s a rare case where both parties’ early frontrunners already held the nation’s second-highest office.

On the Democratic side, Newsom sits in second place with 15% support, trailed by Ocasio-Cortez at 9%. Other names are circulating in the broader Democratic conversation, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Senator Jon Ossoff, though this particular poll places Harris well ahead of the rest of the field by double digits.

Vance Holds a Wide Lead Over Rubio

On the Republican side, Vance’s 38% gives him a 14-point edge over Rubio’s 24%, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9% and Donald Trump Jr. at 7%. A CNN data analysis called Vance the clear “heir apparent” for the nomination, noting he is “doubling up on the field” in national surveys. Other Republican-aligned polling, including a Harvard/Harris survey, has shown Vance leading Rubio by an even wider margin.

A Crowded Field Despite the Frontrunners

Even with Vance and Harris on top, both parties’ benches run deep. Possible Republican contenders include Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, DeSantis, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Christie has predicted President Trump’s approval ratings could weaken Vance’s standing, even as Vance “consistently leads 2028 GOP presidential polls” in survey after survey.

Midterm elections this November could reshape both fields before the real primary season begins. Ohio’s Senate race, where Republican Jon Husted defends the seat Vance once held against Democrat Sherrod Brown, is one contest political watchers are tracking closely as a signal of each party’s strength heading into 2028.

Why Early Polls Rarely Settle the Race

Polling researchers caution that surveys taken this far out mostly measure name recognition, not real voter commitment. The American Association for Public Opinion Research notes that polls “describe what people would do right now,” not what will happen once candidates actually campaign and debate. That gap matters for two sitting or former vice presidents whose national profiles already dwarf lesser-known rivals.

Academic research backs up that caution. One study of presidential nomination forecasting found pre-primary polls correctly called 13 of 16 recent nomination winners, but still missed surprises like Howard Dean’s 2004 collapse and Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 fade. Early leads can evaporate once voters start paying closer attention and rival campaigns gain traction on the ground.

2028 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES — VANCE VS. HARRIS IN 2028? NEW POLL SHOWS A BATTLE OF THE VEEPS pic.twitter.com/tRBCCfLZVK

— Caleb Parke (@calebparke) October 13, 2026

For now, the numbers give both parties a clear starting point heading toward 2028. Harris and Vance enter the conversation as the most recognized names, but history shows frontrunner status this early offers no guarantee. Voters frustrated with Washington gridlock will likely watch to see whether fresher faces can break through before the real campaign begins.