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Paxton’s SHOCKING Senate Bid: Cornyn in Trouble?

February 17, 2026

Paxton’s Legal WINS: Clears Path to Senate

Texas AG Ken Paxton launches a fierce U.S. Senate challenge against establishment incumbent John Cornyn, framing relentless legal attacks as proof he’s hitting the deep state target.

Story Snapshot

Paxton officially filed for Senate on November 12, 2025, vowing to “send John Cornyn packing” in the March 3, 2026 GOP primary.
Polls show a dead heat: Paxton at 31%, Cornyn at 32%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17% among Texas Republicans.
All major legal probes against Paxton—felony fraud, impeachment, State Bar case, federal corruption—closed without charges, clearing his path.
Paxton positions as Trump-aligned fighter against Cornyn’s bipartisan votes on foreign aid, energizing the conservative base.

Paxton’s Bold Announcement

Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General, filed paperwork for the U.S. Senate on November 12, 2025, directly challenging Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton announced on X: “BIG NEWS: I’ve officially filed to run for U.S. Senate. Come next year, we are going to send John Cornyn packing and win this race.” This move pits a proven conservative warrior against a 22-year establishment veteran. Paxton frames his candidacy as a push for real change in Washington, aligning with President Trump’s priorities amid 2026 midterms. Texas GOP primary voters hold the key on March 3, 2026.

Defending a Battle-Tested Record

Paxton appeared on Fox News, invoking his signature line: “When You are Over the Target, and You are Fighting, They Come After You.” He defends his record against years of legal assaults, including dropped 2015 felony fraud charges via 2023 plea deal, failed 2023 impeachment over alleged Nate Paul ties, dismissed January 2025 State Bar case, and closed late 2024 federal corruption probe. These closures, even under Biden’s DOJ, validate Paxton’s narrative of partisan persecution for challenging election integrity and Biden policies. Conservatives see this resilience as essential against D.C. insiders.

Polls and Primary Dynamics

October 2025 Axios polls reveal a tight race: Paxton trails Cornyn 31% to 32%, with Wesley Hunt at 17%. A February 2025 UT Austin poll shows Paxton dominating conservatives at 62% approval versus Cornyn’s 45%. Low-turnout Texas primaries favor strong Republicans like Paxton, who survived 2022 challenges despite indictments. Paxton attacks Cornyn’s “lack of production” and bipartisan votes, like the 2024 foreign aid bill, echoing frustrations with globalist spending. Trump, who endorsed Paxton’s 2022 reelection, remains a pivotal influencer.

Legal Victories Bolster Campaign

November 2025 Texas Supreme Court ruling blocked Paxton’s deposition in the whistleblower civil suit from ex-aides. SMU political science expert Matthew Wilson calls the federal probe’s end a “huge boon,” proving no merit even under Democrats and burnishing Paxton’s Trump-like fighter image. Paxton’s April 2025 campaign ad signaled intentions, praising Ted Cruz’s model while blasting Cornyn. These wins free Paxton to focus on Senate without AG resignation, as his term ends in 2026 separately.

Implications for Texas GOP and Nation

The race divides Texas Republicans: insurgents back Paxton’s anti-establishment push, while Cornyn touts $4.1 million cash-on-hand and Trump-era achievements like tax cuts. Short-term, it energizes the base but risks moderate alienation; long-term, a Paxton win elevates Trumpist influence in Senate GOP dynamics. This “barnburner clash” heightens national debates on foreign aid and election integrity, influencing 2026 midterms under President Trump. Texas conservatives gain a champion against D.C. overreach.